Kosmos 482: The Soviet Spacecraft that is Falling Back to Earth

Kosmos 482, a Soviet spacecraft originally intended to land on Venus in 1973, may soon re-enter Earth’s atmosphere, around May 9, to be precise.

The Venera-8 Twin Mission

It was 1972, and the Soviet Union’s Venera program was in full swing. This ambitious series of robotic missions had already accomplished what no other space agency had: successfully exploring the blistering surface of our planetary neighbor, Venus.

In 1966, Venera-3 became the first human-made object to impact the surface of another planet. By July 22, 1972, Venera-8 had landed on Venus and survived a full 50 minutes in its extreme heat and crushing pressure. Among its findings: surface light levels comparable to a clear day on Earth.

Earlier that same year, on March 31, the Soviets launched a twin probe from Baikonur Cosmodrome aboard a Molniya rocket—a beefed-up version of the Vostok launcher. This probe, intended to be designated Venera-9, carried the same suite of instruments as Venera-8: a photometer, devices to measure atmospheric pressure, wind speed, gas composition, and radiation.

3V1 probe like Kosmos-482. Credit: russianspaceweb — *3V1 probe like Kosmos 482. Credits: russianspaceweb*

But something went wrong. The upper stage Block-L, responsible for boosting the spacecraft out of Earth orbit and toward Venus, failed to ignite. As a result, the probe remained trapped in a highly elliptical Earth orbit—210 by 9,710 km, inclined at 52.1°—and never reached its destination.

Following Soviet custom, failed interplanetary missions that didn’t leave Earth orbit weren’t given a Venera name. Instead, they were quietly renamed with the catch-all designation Kosmos. This one became Kosmos 482.

The Long Fall of Kosmos 482

Since 1972, much time and many Earth orbits have passed. Kosmos 482’s orbit has gradually decayed to a less-than-stable 198 by 1,597 km.

In recent years, NORAD and COSPAR—the U.S. and international organizations responsible for tracking objects in orbit—have identified the Kosmos 482 mission as having broken into five pieces: the main spacecraft (1972-023E and A), the Block-L stage (1972-023D), the third rocket stage (1972-023B), and the adapter ring connecting Block-L to the third stage (1972-023C). Of these, only the descent module—intended to land on Venus—remains in orbit.

Venera-8 lander, twin of Kormos-482 lander. Credit: Roscosmos — *Venera-8 lander, twin of Kormos 482 lander. Credits: Roscosmos*

This spherical capsule, roughly one meter in diameter and shaped like a reinforced water heater, was built to withstand Venus’s crushing atmosphere, searing heat, and turbulent descent. It is extremely rugged—so much so that, if it re-enters Earth’s atmosphere, it’s likely to remain intact. That makes it a potential hazard.

In fact, 2011 observations suggest that the spacecraft, or part of it, is still in orbit with its solar panels folded, as expected for a probe that never initiated its cruise phase toward Venus. One of the tracked objects, 1972-023A, appears to be such a fragment, possibly a detached antenna, as it lacks the large umbrella-shaped communications dish seen on the original design. But we’ll need it to come closer to confirm its identity.

2011 photo, by ralf Vandenbergh, showing a 3MV object. Credit: Russianspaceweb — *2011 photo, by Ralf Vandenbergh, showing a 3MV object. Credits: Russianspaceweb*

The Final Descent?

Back in the 1970s, early orbital models predicted re-entry around 2029, assuming minimal solar activity. But the spacecraft’s low perigee (just 198 km) has exposed it to increasing atmospheric drag, steadily lowering its altitude. Even the International Space Station, orbiting slightly higher, experiences similar—but less severe—drag effects.

As of now, re-entry is expected around May 9, 2025, with a margin of ±4 days.

Kosmos-482 landing capsule as seen from Earth on July, 2024 compared to Starlink satellite. Credit: Karmanlineofspace — *Kosmos 482 landing capsule as seen from Earth in July 2024 compared to a Starlink satellite. Credits: Karmanlineofspace*

Kosmos 482’s descent module isn’t exactly small, roughly the size of a compact car. But most of the structure is expected to burn up during re-entry. The only part likely to survive is the lander, a solid, heat-resistant unit made to handle the far more punishing conditions on Venus.

Still, there’s a catch

A lander in full working order would deploy parachutes and descend in a controlled fashion. But this is an old probe, dormant for over 50 years, with frozen electronics and long-dead systems. It will tumble through the atmosphere uncontrolled.

And since it was designed to enter a vastly different atmospheric profile, it will likely disintegrate on the way down without causing harm.